A gene expression-based diagnostic classifier for identification of severe COVID-19 and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) (preprint)

MIS-C is a severe hyperinflammatory condition with involvement of multiple organs that occurs in children who had COVID-19 infection. Accurate diagnostic tests are needed to guide management and appropriate treatment and to inform clinical trials of experimental drugs and vaccines, yet the diagnosis of MIS-C is highly challenging due to overlapping clinical features with other acute syndromes in hospitalized patients. Here we developed a gene expression-based classifier for MIS-C by RNA-Seq transcriptome profiling and machine learning based analyses of 195 whole blood RNA and 76 plasma cell-free RNA samples from 191 subjects, including 95 MIS-C patients, 66 COVID-19 infected patients with moderately severe to severe disease, and 30 uninfected controls. We divided the group into a training set (70%) and test set (30%). After selection of the top 300 differentially expressed genes in the training set, we simultaneously trained 13 classification models to distinguish patients with MIS-C and COVID-19 from controls using five-fold cross-validation and grid search hyperparameter tuning. The final optimal classifier models had 100% diagnostic accuracy for MIS-C (versus non-MIS-C) and 85% accuracy for severe COVID-19 (versus mild/asymptomatic COVID-19). Orthogonal validation of a random subset of 11 genes from the final models using quantitative RT-PCR confirmed the differential expression and ability to discriminate MIS-C and COVID-19 from controls. These results underscore the utility of a gene expression classifier for diagnosis of MIS-C and severe COVID-19 as specific and objective biomarkers for these conditions.

Nucleic acid biomarkers of immune response and cell and tissue damage in children with COVID-19 and MIS-C (preprint)

Differential host responses in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) remain poorly characterized. Here we use next-generation sequencing to longitudinally analyze blood samples from pediatric patients with acute COVID-19 (n=70) or MIS-C (n=141) across three hospitals. Profiling of plasma cell-free nucleic acids uncovers distinct signatures of cell injury and death between these two disease states, with increased heterogeneity and multi-organ involvement in MIS-C encompassing diverse cell types such as endothelial and neuronal Schwann cells. Whole blood RNA profiling reveals upregulation of similar pro-inflammatory signaling pathways in COVID-19 and MIS-C, but also MIS-C specific downregulation of T cell-associated pathways. Profiling of plasma cell-free RNA and whole blood RNA in paired samples yields different yet complementary signatures for each disease state. Our work provides a systems-level, multi-analyte view of immune responses and tissue damage in COVID-19 and MIS-C and informs the future development of new disease biomarkers.

Neutralizing immunity in vaccine breakthrough infections from the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants (preprint)

Virus-like particle (VLP) and live virus assays were used to investigate neutralizing immunity to Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants in 239 samples from 125 fully vaccinated individuals. In uninfected, non-boosted individuals, VLP neutralization titers to Delta and Omicron were reduced 2.7-fold and 15.4-fold, respectively, compared to wild-type (WT), while boosted individuals (n=23) had 18-fold increased titers. Delta breakthrough infections (n=39) had 57-fold and 3.1-fold titers whereas Omicron breakthrough infections (n=14) had 5.8-fold and 0.32-fold titers compared to uninfected non-boosted and boosted individuals, respectively. The difference in titers (p=0.049) was related to a higher proportion of moderate to severe infections in the Delta cohort (p=0.014). Correlation of neutralizing and spike quantitative antibody titers was decreased with Delta or Omicron compared to WT. Neutralizing antibodies in Delta and Omicron breakthrough infections increase overall, but the relative magnitude of increase is greater in more clinically severe infection and against the specific infecting variant.

SARS-CoV-2 Spike triggers barrier dysfunction and vascular leak via integrins and TGF-β signaling (preprint)

Severe COVID-19 is associated with epithelial and endothelial barrier dysfunction within the lung as well as in distal organs. While it is appreciated that an exaggerated inflammatory response is associated with barrier dysfunction, the triggers of this pathology are unclear. Here, we report that cell-intrinsic interactions between the Spike (S) glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 and epithelial/endothelial cells are sufficient to trigger barrier dysfunction in vitro and vascular leak in vivo, independently of viral replication and the ACE2 receptor. We identify an S-triggered transcriptional response associated with extracellular matrix reorganization and TGF-{beta} signaling. Using genetic knockouts and specific inhibitors, we demonstrate that glycosaminoglycans, integrins, and the TGF-{beta} signaling axis are required for S-mediated barrier dysfunction. Our findings suggest that S interactions with barrier cells are a contributing factor to COVID-19 disease severity and offer mechanistic insight into SARS-CoV-2 triggered vascular leak, providing a starting point for development of therapies targeting COVID-19 pathogenesis.

Predominance of antibody-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants in vaccine breakthrough cases from the San Francisco Bay Area, California (preprint)

Associations between vaccine breakthrough cases and infection by SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have remained largely unexplored. Here we analyzed SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences and viral loads from 1,373 persons with COVID-19 from the San Francisco Bay Area from February 1 to June 30, 2021, of which 125 (9.1%) were vaccine breakthrough infections. Fully vaccinated were more likely than unvaccinated persons to be infected by variants carrying mutations associated with decreased antibody neutralization (L452R, L452Q, E484K, and/or F490S) (78% versus 48%, p = 1.96e-08), but not by those associated with increased infectivity (L452R and/or N501Y) (85% versus 77%, p = 0.092). Differences in viral loads were non-significant between unvaccinated and fully vaccinated persons overall (p = 0.99) and according to lineage (p = 0.09 - 0.78). Viral loads were significantly higher in symptomatic as compared to asymptomatic vaccine breakthrough cases (p < 0.0001), and symptomatic vaccine breakthrough infections had similar viral loads to unvaccinated infections (p = 0.64). In 5 cases with available longitudinal samples for serologic analyses, vaccine breakthrough infections were found to be associated with low or undetectable neutralizing antibody levels attributable to immunocompromised state or infection by an antibody-resistant lineage. These findings suggest that vaccine breakthrough cases are preferentially caused by circulating antibody-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants, and that symptomatic breakthrough infections may potentially transmit COVID-19 as efficiently as unvaccinated infections, regardless of the infecting lineage.

Transmission, infectivity, and antibody neutralization of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in California carrying a L452R spike protein mutation (preprint)

We identified a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant by viral whole-genome sequencing of 2,172 remnant nasal/nasopharyngeal swab samples from 44 counties in California. Named B.1.427/B.1.429 or 20C/L452R, the variant emerged around May 2020 and increased from 0% to >50% of sequenced cases from September 1, 2020 to January 29, 2021, exhibiting an estimated 18.6-24% increase in transmissibility relative to wild-type circulating strains. This variant is characterized by three mutations in the spike protein, including a L452R substitution in the receptor-binding domain. Our analyses revealed 2-fold increased B.1.427/B.1.429 viral shedding in vivo and increased L452R pseudovirus infection of cell cultures and lung organoids, albeit decreased relative to pseudoviruses carrying the N501Y mutation found in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 lineages). Antibody neutralization assays showed 4.0 to 6.7-fold and 2.0-fold decreases in neutralizing titers from convalescent patients and vaccine recipients, respectively. The increased prevalence of a more transmissible variant in California associated with decreased antibody neutralization warrants further investigation.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody magnitude and detectability are driven by disease severity, timing, and assay (preprint)

Serosurveillance studies are critical for estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission and immunity, but interpretation of results is currently limited by poorly defined variability in the performance of antibody assays to detect seroreactivity over time in individuals with different clinical presentations. We measured longitudinal antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in plasma samples from a diverse cohort of 128 individuals over 160 days using 14 binding and neutralization assays. For all assays, we found a consistent and strong effect of disease severity on antibody magnitude, with fever, cough, hospitalization, and oxygen requirement explaining much of this variation. We found that binding assays measuring responses to spike protein had consistently higher correlation with neutralization than those measuring responses to nucleocapsid, regardless of assay format and sample timing. However, assays varied substantially with respect to sensitivity during early convalescence and in time to seroreversion. Variations in sensitivity and durability were particularly dramatic for individuals with mild infection, who had consistently lower antibody titers and represent the majority of the infected population, with sensitivities often differing substantially from reported test characteristics (e.g., amongst commercial assays, sensitivity at 6 months ranged from 33% for ARCHITECT IgG to 98% for VITROS Total Ig). Thus, the ability to detect previous infection by SARS-CoV-2 is highly dependent on the severity of the initial infection, timing relative to infection, and the assay used. These findings have important implications for the design and interpretation of SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance studies.

Digital droplet PCR accurately quantifies SARS-CoV-2 viral load from crude lysate without nucleic acid purification (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus motivates diverse diagnostic approaches due to the novel causative pathogen, incompletely understood clinical sequelae, and limited availability of testing resources. Given the variability in viral load across and within patients, absolute viral load quantification directly from crude lysate is important for diagnosis and surveillance. Here, we investigate the use of digital droplet PCR (ddPCR) for SARS-CoV-2 viral load measurement directly from crude lysate without nucleic acid purification. We demonstrate ddPCR accurately quantifies SARS-CoV-2 standards from purified RNA and multiple sample matrices, including commonly utilized universal transport medium (UTM). In addition, we find ddPCR functions robustly at low input viral copy numbers on nasopharyngeal swab specimens stored in UTM without upfront RNA extraction. We also show ddPCR, but not qPCR, from crude lysate shows high concordance with viral load measurements from purified RNA. Our data suggest ddPCR offers advantages to qPCR for SARS-CoV-2 detection with higher sensitivity and robustness when using crude lysate rather than purified RNA as input. More broadly, digital droplet assays provide a potential method for nucleic acid measurement and infectious disease diagnosis with limited sample processing, underscoring the utility of such techniques in laboratory medicine.

Universal PCR and antibody testing demonstrate little to no transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a rural community (preprint)

BackgroundThe absence of systematic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 has curtailed accurate appraisal of transmission intensity. Our objective was to perform case detection of an entire rural community to quantify SARS-CoV-2 transmission using PCR and antibody testing. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional survey of the prevalence and cumulative incidence of SARSCoV-2 infection in the rural town of Bolinas, California (population 1,620), four weeks following shelter-in-place orders. Residents and county essential workers were tested between April 20th - 24th, 2020. Prevalence by PCR and seroprevalence combining data from two forms of antibody testing were performed in parallel (Abbott ARCHITECT IgG to nucleocapsid protein and in-house IgG ELISA to the receptor binding domain). ResultsOf 1,891 participants, 1,312 were confirmed Bolinas residents (>80% community ascertainment). Zero participants were PCR positive. Assuming 80% sensitivity, it would have been unlikely to observe these results (p< 0.05) if there were > 3 active infections in the community. Based on antibody results, estimated prevalence of prior infection was 0.16% (95% CrI: 0.02%, 0.46%). Seroprevalence estimates using only one of the two tests would have been higher, with greater uncertainty. The positive predictive value (PPV) of a positive result on both tests was 99.11% (95% CrI: 95.75%, 99.94%), compared to PPV 44.19%-63.32% (95% CrI range 3.25%-98.64%) if only one test was utilized. ConclusionsFour weeks following shelter-in-place, active and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in a rural Northern California community was extremely rare. In this low prevalence setting, use of two antibody tests increased the PPV and precision of seroprevalence estimates.

Cell-Free DNA in Blood Reveals Significant Cell, Tissue and Organ Specific injury and Predicts COVID-19 Severity (preprint)

COVID-19 primarily affects the lungs, but evidence of systemic disease with multi-organ involvement is emerging. Here, we developed a blood test to broadly quantify cell, tissue, and organ specific injury due to COVID-19, using genome-wide methylation profiling of circulating cell-free DNA in plasma. We assessed the utility of this test to identify subjects with severe disease in two independent, longitudinal cohorts of hospitalized patients. Cell-free DNA profiling was performed on 104 plasma samples from 33 COVID-19 patients and compared to samples from patients with other viral infections and healthy controls. We found evidence of injury to the lung and liver and involvement of red blood cell progenitors associated with severe COVID-19. The concentration of cfDNA correlated with the WHO ordinal scale for disease progression and was significantly increased in patients requiring intubation. This study points to the utility of cell-free DNA as an analyte to monitor and study COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 Community Transmission During Shelter-in-Place in San Francisco (preprint)

ABSTRACT Background: We characterized SARS-CoV-2 infections in a densely-populated, majority Latinx San Francisco community six-weeks into the city's shelter-in-place order. Methods: We offered SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription-PCR and antibody (Abbott ARCHITECT IgG) testing, regardless of symptoms, to all residents (>=4 years) and workers in a San Francisco census tract (population: 5,174) at outdoor, community-mobilized events over four days. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 point prevalence (PCR-positive) and cumulative incidence (antibody or PCR-positive) in the census tract and evaluated risk factors for recent (PCR-positive/antibody-negative) versus prior infection (antibody-positive/PCR-negative). SARS-CoV-2 genome recovery and phylogenetics were used to measure viral strain diversity, establish viral lineages present, and estimate number of introductions. Results: We tested 3,953 persons: 40% Latinx; 41% White; 9% Asian/Pacific Islander; and 2% Black. Overall, 2.1% (83/3,871) tested PCR-positive: 95% were Latinx and 52% asymptomatic when tested. 1.7% of residents and 6.0% of workers (non-census tract residents) were PCR-positive. Among 2,598 census tract residents, estimated point prevalence of PCR-positives was 2.3% (95%CI: 1.2-3.8%): 3.9% (95%CI: 2.0-6.4%) among Latinx vs. 0.2% (95%CI: 0.0-0.4%) among non-Latinx persons. Estimated cumulative incidence among residents was 6.1% (95%CI: 4.0-8.6%). Prior infections were 67% Latinx, 16% White, and 17% other ethnicities. Among recent infections, 96% were Latinx. Risk factors for recent infection were Latinx ethnicity, inability to shelter-in-place and maintain income, frontline service work, unemployment, and household income

A SARS-CoV-2 serological assay to determine the presence of blocking antibodies that compete for human ACE2 binding (preprint)

As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread around the world, there is an urgent need for new assay formats to characterize the humoral response to infection. Convalescent serum is being used for treatment and for isolation of patient-derived antibodies. However, currently there is not a simple means to estimate serum bulk neutralizing capability. Here we present an efficient competitive serological assay that can simultaneously determine an individual's seropositivity against the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein and estimate the neutralizing capacity of anti-Spike antibodies to block interaction with the human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) required for viral entry. In this ELISA-based assay, we present natively-folded viral Spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD)-containing antigens via avidin-biotin interactions. Sera are then supplemented with soluble ACE2-Fc to compete for RBD-binding serum antibodies, and antibody binding quantified. Comparison of signal from untreated serum and ACE2-Fc-treated serum reveals the presence of antibodies that compete with ACE2 for RBD binding, as evidenced by loss of signal with ACE2-Fc treatment. In our test cohort of nine convalescent SARS-CoV-2 patients, we found all patients had developed anti-RBD antibodies targeting the epitope responsible for ACE2 engagement. This assay provides a simple and high-throughput method to screen patient sera for potentially neutralizing anti-Spike antibodies to enable identification of candidate sera for therapeutic use.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and neutralizing activity in donor and patient blood from the San Francisco Bay Area (preprint)

We report very low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in two San Francisco Bay Area populations. Seropositivity was 0.26% in 387 hospitalized patients admitted for non-respiratory indications and 0.1% in 1,000 blood donors. We additionally describe the longitudinal dynamics of immunoglobulin-G, immunoglobulin-M, and in vitro neutralizing antibody titers in COVID-19 patients. Neutralizing antibodies rise in tandem with immunoglobulin levels following symptom onset, exhibiting median time to seroconversion within one day of each other, and there is >93% positive percent agreement between detection of immunoglobulin-G and neutralizing titers.

ReScan, a Multiplex Diagnostic Pipeline, Pans Human Sera for SARS-CoV-2 Antigens (preprint)

Serologic assays are needed to determine SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, but poor specificity can overestimate exposures. Here, we built a pan-human coronavirus proteome-wide programmable phage display assay (VirScan) to profile coronavirus antigens specifically enriched by 20 COVID-19 patient serum IgG. With ReScan, a new diagnostic development workflow which combines the isolation of phage expressing the most immunogenic peptides with paper-based microarrays manufactured via acoustic liquid handling, we identified 9 candidate antigens from a library of 534 SARS-CoV-2 peptides. These arrays could form the basis of a multiplexed COVID-19 serologic assay with enhanced specificity. ReScan has broad applicability for serologic assay development.

Clinical features, diagnostics, and outcomes of patients presenting with acute respiratory illness: a comparison of patients with and without COVID-19 (preprint)

BackgroundEmerging data on the clinical presentation, diagnostics, and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 have largely been presented as case series. Few studies have compared these clinical features and outcomes of COVID-19 to other acute respiratory illnesses. MethodsWe examined all patients presenting to an emergency department in San Francisco, California between February 3 and March 31, 2020 with an acute respiratory illness who were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We determined COVID-19 status by PCR and metagenomic next generation sequencing (mNGS). We compared demographics, comorbidities, symptoms, vital signs, and laboratory results including viral diagnostics using PCR and mNGS. Among those hospitalized, we determined differences in treatment (antibiotics, antivirals, respiratory support) and outcomes (ICU admission, ICU interventions, acute respiratory distress syndrome, cardiac injury). FindingsIn a cohort of 316 patients, 33 (10%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2; 31 patients, all without COVID-19, tested positive for another respiratory virus (16%). Among patients with additional viral testing, no co-infections with SARS-CoV-2 were identified by PCR or mNGS. Patients with COVID-19 reported longer symptoms duration (median 7 vs. 3 days) and were more likely to report fever (82% vs. 44%) fatigue (85% vs. 50%) and myalgias (61% vs 27%); p<0.001 for all comparisons. Lymphopenia (55% vs 34%, p=0.018) and bilateral opacities on initial chest radiograph (55% vs. 24%, p=0.001) were more common in patients with COVID-19. Patients with COVID-19 were more often hospitalized (79% vs. 56%, p=0.014). Of 186 hospitalized patients, patients with COVID-19 had longer hospitalizations (median 10.7d vs. 4.7d, p<0.001) and were more likely to develop ARDS (23% vs. 3%, p<0.001). Most comorbidities, home medications, signs and symptoms, vital signs, laboratory results, treatment, and outcomes did not differ by COVID-19 status. InterpretationWhile we found differences in clinical features of COVID-19 compared to other acute respiratory illnesses, there was significant overlap in presentation and comorbidities. Patients with COVID-19 were more likely to be admitted to the hospital, have longer hospitalizations and develop ARDS, and were unlikely to have co-existent viral infections. These findings enhance understanding of the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 in comparison to other acute respiratory illnesses.

Test performance evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 serological assays (preprint)

Background Serological tests are crucial tools for assessments of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, infection and potential immunity. Their appropriate use and interpretation require accurate assay performance data. Method We conducted an evaluation of 10 lateral flow assays (LFAs) and two ELISAs to detect anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The specimen set comprised 128 plasma or serum samples from 79 symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-positive individuals; 108 pre-COVID-19 negative controls; and 52 recent samples from individuals who underwent respiratory viral testing but were not diagnosed with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Samples were blinded and LFA results were interpreted by two independent readers, using a standardized intensity scoring system. Results Among specimens from SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-positive individuals, the percent seropositive increased with time interval, peaking at 81.8-100.0% in samples taken >20 days after symptom onset. Test specificity ranged from 84.3-100.0% in pre-COVID-19 specimens. Specificity was higher when weak LFA bands were considered negative, but this decreased sensitivity. IgM detection was more variable than IgG, and detection was highest when IgM and IgG results were combined. Agreement between ELISAs and LFAs ranged from 75.7-94.8%. No consistent cross-reactivity was observed. Conclusion Our evaluation showed heterogeneous assay performance. Reader training is key to reliable LFA performance, and can be tailored for survey goals. Informed use of serology will require evaluations covering the full spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infections, from asymptomatic and mild infection to severe disease, and later convalescence. Well-designed studies to elucidate the mechanisms and serological correlates of protective immunity will be crucial to guide rational clinical and public health policies.

Association of COVID-19 Infections in San Francisco in Early March 2020 with Travel to New York and Europe (preprint)

Real-time dissemination of epidemiological survey data from positive COVID-19 cases is critical to support efforts to contain or reduce spread of viral infection in the community. Here we detected a significant association between domestic travel or travel to Europe and the identification of new cases in San Francisco, California, USA. These findings suggest that domestic and European travelers may need to be prioritized for evaluation of acute infection from COVID-19 in the setting of limited testing capacity.

A Genomic Survey of SARS-CoV-2 Reveals Multiple Introductions into Northern California without a Predominant Lineage (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally, resulting in >300,000 reported cases worldwide as of March 21st, 2020. Here we investigate the genetic diversity and genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California using samples from returning travelers, cruise ship passengers, and cases of community transmission with unclear infection sources. Virus genomes were sampled from 29 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection from Feb 3rd through Mar 15th. Phylogenetic analyses revealed at least 8 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages, suggesting multiple independent introductions of the virus into the state. Virus genomes from passengers on two consecutive excursions of the Grand Princess cruise ship clustered with those from an established epidemic in Washington State, including the WA1 genome representing the first reported case in the United States on January 19th. We also detected evidence for presumptive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineages from one community to another. These findings suggest that cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California to date is characterized by multiple transmission chains that originate via distinct introductions from international and interstate travel, rather than widespread community transmission of a single predominant lineage. Rapid testing and contact tracing, social distancing, and travel restrictions are measures that will help to slow SARS-CoV-2 spread in California and other regions of the USA.

Rapid Detection of 2019 Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 Using a CRISPR-based DETECTR Lateral Flow Assay (preprint)

An outbreak of novel betacoronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 (formerly named 2019-nCoV), began in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and the COVID-19 disease associated with infection has since spread rapidly to multiple countries. Here we report the development of SARS-CoV-2 DETECTR, a rapid (~30 min), low-cost, and accurate CRISPR-Cas12 based lateral flow assay for detection of SARS-CoV-2. We validated this method using contrived reference samples and clinical samples from infected US patients and demonstrated comparable performance to the US CDC SARS-CoV-2 real-time RT-PCR assay.